Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 111 | 112 | 231 |
| COL | 07 | 212 | 26 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:07COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:20CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dylan Sikura, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 13:57COLColin WilsonPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 1:26COLSven AndrighettoGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 12:04CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Duncan Keith, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 17:40COLDerick BrassardENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:10CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:36COLDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:39CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:29CHIErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58CHIDavid Kampf: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:42COLTyson Jost: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:53COLAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Sikura9:32
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – DeBrincat4:09
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Kampf5:13
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Perlini – Strome – DeBrincat5:30
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson18:48
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom8:23
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Forsling3:19
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Compher – MacKinnon9:55
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Brassard – Calvert – Jost2:36
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Wilson – Andrighetto4:00
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie4:11
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov6:53
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov2:23
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).