Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 4, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 27 | 112 | 427 |
| MTL | 012 | 420 | 312 | 744 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:09MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Andrew Shaw, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:12MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:23MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Domi, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 14:53BUFAlex NylanderPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 16:08BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:03MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jordan Weal, Nate Thompson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 8:35MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 13:13BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
- P3 15:30MTLMax DomiPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 17:47MTLTomas TatarENAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:42BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:09MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:43MTLChristian Folin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06MTLAndrew Shaw: Charging2 min
- P3 9:06MTLAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Rodrigues10:25
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reinhart – Mittelstadt9:30
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:55
xG 0.13–0.76 (15%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Sheary – Eichel – Nylander11:00
xG 0.07–0.92 (7%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Scandella2:57
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Nelson14:02
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Montour – Dahlin15:06
xG 0.40–0.85 (32%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Lehkonen – Domi10:37
xG 1.20–0.35 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:53
xG 1.00–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Thompson – Byron – Weal10:56
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi8:53
xG 0.36–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete13:11
xG 1.28–0.07 (95%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Benn – Folin12:43
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Petry – Mete2:06
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).