Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 0, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 09 | 012 | 033 |
| WPG | 08 | 319 | 216 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:42WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:16WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Matt Hendricks, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 15:41WPGKevin HayesAssists: Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 15:22WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 19:51WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Patrik Laine, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 6:19NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:03NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi3:41
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bonino – Sissons11:21
xG 0.17–0.28 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:03
xG 0.79–1.03 (43%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Granlund12:59
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm16:23
xG 0.71–0.67 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
- Weber – Irwin10:30
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Josi – Ellis18:42
xG 0.54–0.73 (43%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Connor – Laine13:31
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 4–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:11
xG 0.90–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev12:27
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Perreault – Copp8:00
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov17:16
xG 1.26–0.77 (62%)attempts 24–19goals 2–0
- Beaulieu – Trouba19:32
xG 1.02–0.87 (54%)attempts 21–28goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Niku17:25
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).