Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 219 | 111 | 342 |
| STL | 313 | 18 | 05 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 12:08STLAlexander SteenAssists: Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 12:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 0:27TBLAlex KillornSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 7:24TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 14:24STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 4:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:00TBLRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:30STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:57TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 8:56STLZachary Sanford: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:28STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point10:59
xG 1.53–0.74 (67%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller9:16
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne6:10
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:58
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev13:43
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak16:32
xG 1.03–0.91 (53%)attempts 22–13goals 2–1
- Coburn – Rutta8:48
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sanford – Barbashev8:53
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas6:53
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko11:53
xG 0.84–1.09 (43%)attempts 12–19goals 2–1
- Perron – Schwartz – Sundqvist11:20
xG 0.53–0.89 (37%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Del Zotto6:35
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn15:27
xG 0.79–0.79 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko18:14
xG 0.39–1.13 (26%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).