Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 38 | 05 | 417 |
| TBL | 29 | 010 | 39 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:30BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:58TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:42BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: David Backes · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:41BOSBrandon CarloAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 14:32BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 5:36TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 13:15TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 19:07TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:28TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45TBLJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05BOSKarson Kuhlman: Holding2 min
- P2 9:46BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:02BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:10
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:23
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Acciari7:33
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Coyle – Wagner – Heinen13:31
xG 0.08–0.77 (9%)attempts 2–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Clifton4:47
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo3:14
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy12:23
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Miller – Joseph6:55
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli2:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point12:28
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne6:52
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev14:45
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 3–1
- McDonagh – Cernak16:07
xG 0.67–0.58 (53%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Coburn – Rutta9:20
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).