Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 317 | 28 | 537 |
| WPG | 08 | 011 | 24 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:27DALEsa LindellAssists: Blake Comeau, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:23DALRadek FaksaAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ben Bishop · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:16DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 10:34DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 11:03WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 15:10WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:20DALRadek FaksaENAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:38DALBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:13WPGPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:43WPGDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:47WPGKyle Connor: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Dickinson7:14
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dowling – Ritchie – Nichushkin7:45
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Hintz8:27
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:22
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell12:13
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Polak – Heiskanen13:20
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:57
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Connor – Laine14:13
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev7:32
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Perreault – Copp5:22
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:32
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Trouba15:06
xG 0.59–0.19 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Myers – Niku2:07
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Niku12:40
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).