Mon, Mar 25, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 18 | 15 | 323 |
| SJS | 011 | 012 | 218 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 15:37DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Taro Hirose · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 8:35DETChristoffer EhnSHGWGAssists: Luke Glendening, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 8:55SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 19:55SJSTomas HertlAssists: Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:34SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P2 5:34DETAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21DETDylan McIlrath: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:23DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:21DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin14:42
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Hirose8:05
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Puempel – Athanasiou – Ehn2:20
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Kuffner6:47
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek2:26
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McIlrath – DeKeyser2:58
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Bowey11:38
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Labanc7:46
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Nyquist – Radil2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil4:07
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Goodrow – Karlsson6:40
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic6:04
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Heed2:55
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Dillon – Heed7:12
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).