Tue, Mar 26, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 1, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 08 | 112 | 134 |
| MTL | 311 | 27 | 19 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58MTLTomas TatarAssists: Andrew Shaw, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:39MTLBrett KulakGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Weal · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 14:28MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 2:52MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Andrew Shaw, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 12:40MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Victor Mete, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–5
- P3 1:35FLAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Denis Malgin, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
- P3 11:48MTLMax DomiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:24MTLPaul Byron: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:24FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:02MTLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:17FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:25FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 7:29FLATroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:29MTLChristian Folin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:41MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sceviour – Malgin3:31
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Hunt4:32
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Hunt – Vatrano6:07
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Vatrano – Malgin5:23
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Brown12:12
xG 0.44–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson2:06
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Brown2:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault8:30
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi5:44
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Thompson – Tatar – Weal2:50
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Lehkonen5:38
xG 0.07–0.06 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:04
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 25–12goals 4–0
- Petry – Benn2:13
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete12:21
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).