Wed, Mar 27, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 013 | 215 | 03 | 0 | 442 |
| PHI | 010 | 318 | 111 | 05 | 1 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03TORConnor BrownAssists: Tyler Ennis, Frederik Gauthier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:02TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 3:39PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:15PHIRadko GudasAssists: Robert Hagg, Corban Knight · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 15:46PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Sanheim, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 1:43TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:00PHIRyan HartmanAssists: Scott Laughton, Corban Knight · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 11:33TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 2. TOR Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 4. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 5. PHI Nolan Patrick stopped
- 6. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 7. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 8. TOR John Tavares stopped
- 9. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 10. TOR William Nylander stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:09PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:08TORAndreas Johnsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:00PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Brown – Gauthier7:37
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews14:16
xG 1.20–0.99 (55%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen12:08
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner14:33
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Ozhiganov7:17
xG 1.10–0.23 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly2:40
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hartman – Konecny4:13
xG 0.97–0.16 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Patrick9:58
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier3:03
xG 0.01–0.20 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom12:33
xG 0.48–1.31 (27%)attempts 10–22goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov20:43
xG 1.45–1.06 (58%)attempts 22–24goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers8:20
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Gudas – Hagg13:47
xG 0.34–1.26 (21%)attempts 8–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).