Wed, Mar 27, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 214 | 115 | 337 |
| COL | 212 | 211 | 07 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39COLMatt CalvertAssists: Tyson Jost, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:37COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:18COLTyson BarrieAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 10:57VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Jon Merrill, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 14:47VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P2 17:10COLGabriel BourqueGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 16:37VGKAlex TuchAssists: Paul Stastny, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:56COLDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:54VGKPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:08VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:08COLSven Andrighetto: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:08VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:08COLSven Andrighetto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:51COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:45VGKDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P3 19:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stone – Tuch6:06
xG 1.19–0.05 (96%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:27
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Nosek – Tuch5:36
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare5:24
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Schmidt13:53
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller14:47
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:29
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 14–15goals 0–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Wilson – Andrighetto9:08
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Bourque – Agozzino – Nieto4:57
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Nieto4:00
xG 0.05–0.10 (31%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Calvert – Jost9:47
xG 0.10–0.53 (16%)attempts 3–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov10:15
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Cole – Barrie12:34
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:04
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).