Thu, Mar 28, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 213 | 211 | 534 |
| OTT | 19 | 010 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 12:59OTTColin WhiteAssists: Brian Gibbons, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 2:35FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Riley Sheahan, Dryden Hunt · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 6:31FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 3:01OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Brian Gibbons, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:32FLADryden HuntENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
- P3 19:46FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 8:24FLATroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:22FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:04OTTColin White: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:36FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:16OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:46FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sheahan – Hunt9:58
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:55
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Hawryluk10:17
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Malgin – Borgstrom9:48
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Keeper11:25
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:56
xG 0.65–0.86 (43%)attempts 19–16goals 2–2
- Pysyk – Brown16:40
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – White – Tkachuk5:10
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Ryan – Pageau – Tkachuk5:01
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Duclair – White2:52
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Gibbons2:41
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot13:12
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Chabot – Jaros6:21
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros7:52
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).