Fri, Mar 29, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 09 | 220 | 03 | 0 | 244 |
| COL | 07 | 210 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:37COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 19:26COLDerick BrassardPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 12:00ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Jason Demers, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:09ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Cousins stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 3. ARI Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 4. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 5. ARI Vinnie Hinostroza stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:41COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:36COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:40COLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 12:37ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36ARINick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:26ARIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Galchenyuk – Keller5:10
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Panik – Hinostroza10:06
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Stepan – Archibald – Crouse8:57
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Grabner – Cousins – Galchenyuk2:43
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Ekman-Larsson2:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Connauton8:06
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton2:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Wilson – Landeskog11:22
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – MacKinnon9:59
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Calvert – Nieto – Jost6:16
xG 0.04–0.06 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Bourque – Andrighetto4:28
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov4:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie9:58
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Barrie – Zadorov3:00
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).