Sat, Mar 30, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 313 | 115 | 27 | 635 |
| TBL | 05 | 19 | 214 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson, Christian Djoos · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:45WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nick Jensen, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 16:00WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 7:53WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 17:25TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 3:36TBLTyler JohnsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 14:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 16:15WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 19:32TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:21TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:12TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31TBLBraydon Coburn: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:44WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:47TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:26TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:26WSHBrooks Orpik: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:26WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:13TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:13WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:30TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:14WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Burakovsky8:02
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:18
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Oshie – Hagelin – Kuznetsov2:10
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:05
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Jensen8:18
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Carlson3:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos8:33
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point4:26
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli2:18
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne9:01
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Palat4:23
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak11:54
xG 0.87–0.63 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Sergachev7:47
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev5:39
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).