Sat, Mar 30, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 012 | 112 | 132 |
| NYI | 116 | 212 | 210 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 8:20NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 19:26NYIMichael Dal ColleAssists: Adam Pelech, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 0:30NYIRyan PulockAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 6:07NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 13:28BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:23BUFBrandon Montour: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:38NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:29BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:06NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Olofsson – Nylander5:53
xG 0.32–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Wilson – Girgensons5:24
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Sheary4:04
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Dahlin12:51
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Nelson – Pilut5:00
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Dahlin4:16
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Dal Colle12:09
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:53
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal13:20
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kuhnhackl – Beauvillier7:32
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:50
xG 1.12–0.12 (90%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock19:13
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:45
xG 0.79–1.66 (32%)attempts 15–29goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).