Sun, Mar 31, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 39 | 017 | 334 |
| DET | 29 | 08 | 411 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:59DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Tyler Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:01BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Krejci, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:50BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 19:00BOSDavid BackesAssists: Kevan Miller, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 1:17DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 1:25DETTaro HiroseGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 12:03DETFilip HronekAssists: Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 19:02DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:06BOSTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P1 13:38DETAndreas Athanasiou: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:07DETChristoffer Ehn: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:04BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:12BOSCharlie McAvoy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:24DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:24BOSNoel Acciari: Instigator2 min
- P2 14:24BOSNoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:24BOSNoel Acciari: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:44DETAndreas Athanasiou: Interference2 min
- P3 1:09BOSJake DeBrusk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:17DETTaro Hirose: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Athanasiou won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nordstrom – Acciari7:20
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:24
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Johansson – Coyle – Heinen9:16
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman7:03
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk12:18
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Krug – Carlo10:47
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Krug – McAvoy2:13
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin9:13
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Helm – Athanasiou – Hirose10:13
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Frk – Ehn – Kuffner6:26
xG 0.03–0.47 (6%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Bowey6:59
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Witkowski5:35
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Witkowski – DeKeyser2:32
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).