Mon, Apr 1, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 7, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 15 | 415 | 730 |
| LAK | 28 | 011 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07CGYDerek RyanAssists: Oliver Kylington, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:29LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:09CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Jankowski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 19:20LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:46CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 0:13CGYJames NealAssists: Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 2:33CGYDerek RyanAssists: James Neal, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 8:30CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 8:45CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Austin Czarnik, Alan Quine · Backhand, 0.06 xG7–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:34CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:51CGYMark Jankowski: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:15CGYAlan Quine: Holding2 min
- P3 11:47LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jankowski – Bennett6:34
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Neal – Frolik – Ryan2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Frolik – Quine – Czarnik8:37
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan8:35
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Kylington14:47
xG 1.26–0.48 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg16:12
xG 1.06–0.68 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 3–1
- Stone – Välimäki16:39
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lewis – Clifford9:41
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom6:23
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Amadio – Wagner5:24
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:57
xG 0.11–1.27 (8%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Walker3:14
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:36
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Martinez – Roy13:41
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).