Wed, Apr 3, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 17 | 113 | 431 |
| NYR | 011 | 15 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:29OTTZack SmithSHGWGAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 3:51OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Colin White, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–0
- P2 4:52NYRLias AnderssonSHAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 14:58OTTBrian GibbonsAssists: Colin White · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:13NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Interference2 min
- P1 10:55NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:47OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:55NYRBrendan Lemieux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:55NYRJohn Gilmour: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:52OTTChristian Wolanin: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 6:03NYRBrady Skjei: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:31NYRJohn Gilmour: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:19OTTAndreas Englund: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:19NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:19NYRTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Tierney – Duclair5:01
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gibbons – White – Tkachuk7:49
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Pageau – Balcers – Veronneau6:52
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Lindberg11:01
xG 0.02–0.62 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Jaros12:45
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot14:44
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Ceci – Wolanin15:31
xG 0.15–0.86 (15%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:02
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Vesey – Lemieux – Andersson5:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Namestnikov – Howden9:05
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei15:12
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gilmour – Pionk7:52
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Gilmour – DeAngelo2:17
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).