Thu, Apr 4, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 013 | 014 | 134 |
| PIT | 218 | 118 | 111 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35DETMatt PuempelPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Taro Hirose · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:43PITJake GuentzelAssists: Olli Maatta, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:18PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 15:32PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 6:36PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:11DETMartin Frk: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:40PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03DETAnthony Mantha: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:52PITJack Johnson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:52DETTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:17DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:01DETAndreas Athanasiou: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:01DETAndreas Athanasiou: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 9:52PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:24
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Helm – Athanasiou – Hirose7:40
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Frk – Ehn – Kuffner5:59
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWitkowski – Hicketts5:10
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Witkowski – Hronek2:10
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Chelios9:36
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon6:40
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger4:08
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – McCann14:15
xG 0.90–0.86 (51%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Bjugstad3:40
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson12:33
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta16:01
xG 1.08–0.88 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz13:19
xG 0.19–0.80 (19%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).