Thu, Apr 4, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 110 | 05 | 327 |
| EDM | 18 | 113 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03EDMLeon DraisaitlSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:52SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Joe Thornton, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:04SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:22EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Matt Benning, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 18:48SJSGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:43EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:11SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:22SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 10:37EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:37SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:06SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17EDMColby Cave: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Couture – Meier10:00
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Kane – Hertl9:36
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson7:07
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc8:28
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Middleton8:15
xG 0.75–0.23 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Braun – Dillon13:36
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic6:04
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins9:00
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Rieder – Rattie – Cave5:51
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Currie – Gambardella3:50
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Rattie – Draisaitl – McDavid4:51
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning11:33
xG 0.36–0.25 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Russell – Nurse16:54
xG 0.62–1.22 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:07
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).