Sat, Apr 6, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Montréal Canadiens 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 218 | 219 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 549 |
| MTL | 114 | 317 | 116 | 02 | 2 | 649 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50TORZach HymanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:03TORJake GardinerAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 11:41MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Jordan Weal, Nicolas Deslauriers · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:56MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Jeff Petry, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:04MTLJordan WealPPAssists: Joel Armia, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 8:47TORTrevor MooreAssists: Frederik Gauthier · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 10:17MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Domi, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P2 17:33TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 8:04TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Auston Matthews, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 17:29MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. MTL Tomas Tatar stopped
- 2. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 4. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 5. MTL Jordan Weal stopped
- 6. TOR John Tavares stopped
- 7. MTL Ryan Poehling scored
- 8. TOR Kasperi Kapanen stopped
Penalties (2)
- P2 6:58TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Nylander13:27
xG 1.31–0.44 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner12:39
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews14:41
xG 0.80–1.01 (44%)attempts 19–18goals 1–2
- Brown – Gauthier – Moore8:59
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Rielly10:24
xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Marincin – Rosen3:57
xG 0.55–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Holl – Rosen5:19
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Weal – Poehling9:09
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi16:49
xG 1.32–0.92 (59%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi10:56
xG 0.76–0.69 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:18
xG 0.36–0.89 (29%)attempts 15–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Folin14:19
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Petry – Kulak20:30
xG 1.71–1.51 (53%)attempts 27–28goals 3–2
- Weber – Mete18:34
xG 0.61–0.97 (39%)attempts 23–26goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).