Sat, Apr 6, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 7, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 217 | 310 | 210 | 737 |
| DET | 111 | 05 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:51BUFRasmus DahlinPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:11DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 8:37BUFConor ShearyAssists: Casey Nelson, Scott Wilson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:29BUFJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 12:47BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–1
- P3 10:27BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.11 xG6–1
- P3 11:39BUFBrandon MontourPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.05 xG7–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:30DETJake Chelios: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:47BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 10:45DETMatt Puempel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Larsson – Girgensons10:00
xG 1.21–0.08 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Rodrigues12:07
xG 0.70–0.10 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Wilson – Sheary – Mittelstadt10:48
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel15:54
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNelson – Pilut16:18
xG 1.33–0.10 (93%)attempts 19–5goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin17:31
xG 1.49–0.64 (70%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- McCabe – Montour16:38
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin15:08
xG 0.58–0.90 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Helm – Athanasiou – Hirose9:37
xG 0.14–0.73 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
- Frk – Ehn – Kuffner8:53
xG 0.02–1.29 (1%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Hronek12:59
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- McIlrath – Chelios8:56
xG 0.13–1.05 (11%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Bowey – Hicketts17:39
xG 0.30–1.46 (17%)attempts 6–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).