Wed, Oct 2, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 05 | 09 | 122 |
| VGK | 212 | 116 | 17 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46VGKMark StonePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 5:21VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 12:14SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 2:12VGKCody GlassAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 4:01VGKReilly SmithSHAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:48SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:47VGKBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:47SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:52SJSMarcus Sorensen: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:59VGKPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P2 6:02SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:08VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:59VGKTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Hertl – Labanc – Radil2:56
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Gambrell4:19
xG 0.03–0.41 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Radil – Bergmann7:28
xG 0.05–0.49 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc6:15
xG 0.29–0.81 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Prout – Ferraro4:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic11:22
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro2:59
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:23
xG 1.54–0.03 (98%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Zykov9:16
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:27
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Glass8:44
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – McNabb3:38
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill8:30
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Merrill – Theodore6:16
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).