Thu, Oct 3, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 116 | 19 | 237 |
| TBL | 18 | 19 | 313 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:35FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 10:28TBLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 8:49FLAVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 9:34TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 13:51TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 19:14TBLErik CernakENAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:54TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P2 8:27FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:56TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:06FLAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03TBLGemel Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 11:49FLAMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Connolly – Trocheck9:41
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:37
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Malgin – Borgstrom10:23
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari7:51
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Weegar13:00
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Stralman – Matheson3:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown12:19
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Palat – Cirelli11:05
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Kucherov11:39
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Joseph7:34
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev7:12
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:22
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman11:31
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).