Thu, Oct 3, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 213 | 011 | 341 |
| PIT | 013 | 15 | 011 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23BUFConor ShearyAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:50PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:03BUFConor ShearyPPGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 19:16BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:40BUFVladimir Sobotka: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 5:24BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:58PITMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:29PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min
- P3 8:46BUFColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 17:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:56
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:00
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner12:01
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:03
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen17:13
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:03
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju13:43
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Blueger – Simon – Aston-Reese8:19
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Malkin – Galchenyuk – Tanev10:47
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Kahun9:28
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel12:57
xG 0.13–0.69 (16%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Pettersson3:20
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Pettersson11:53
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Schultz11:23
xG 0.19–0.62 (24%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).