Thu, Oct 3, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 13 | 213 | 014 | 330 |
| COL | 214 | 212 | 16 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59COLJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:33CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:08COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:50CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 12:22COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Matt Calvert, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 16:51COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 17:07CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Sam Bennett, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:51COLJoonas DonskoiENAssists: Matt Nieto, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:10CGYSean Monahan: Interference2 min
- P1 4:08CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:26COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
- P1 7:50COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:40CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
- P2 1:37COLAndre Burakovsky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:02CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:14CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:57COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:42COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:42CGYMilan Lucic: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:42CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:42CGYMilan Lucic: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 16:42CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Mangiapane – Czarnik2:33
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bennett – Mangiapane – Ryan5:00
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Monahan3:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan3:36
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington11:05
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hanifin2:14
xG 0.06–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:17
xG 0.67–0.63 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Jost7:55
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare5:03
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:17
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Donskoi – Nieto – Compher5:42
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov3:55
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard10:00
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Makar9:07
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).