Thu, Oct 3, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 014 | 18 | 011 | 133 |
| ANA | 16 | 114 | 09 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32ANADerek GrantAssists: Devin Shore, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:03ARIDerek StepanAssists: Phil Kessel, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:28ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Carter Rowney, Max Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (2)
- P3 9:06ARICarl Soderberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:14ANACarter Rowney: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fischer – Crouse10:18
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Garland12:13
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller16:23
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza11:13
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Chychrun15:28
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson14:36
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:54
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 18–27goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Jones10:38
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Grant – Shore – Rowney12:22
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase10:27
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Steel11:51
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Guhle17:16
xG 0.87–0.50 (64%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm17:36
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
- Holzer – Larsson12:43
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).