Sat, Oct 5, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 010 | 412 | 09 | 1 | 642 |
| TOR | 212 | 112 | 29 | 04 | 0 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 5:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:54TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 1:29TORTrevor MooreAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 5:16TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 5:27MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:29MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 13:02MTLJeff PetryUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG4–4
- P3 15:20MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–4
- P3 18:45TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 2. MTL Paul Byron scored
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. MTL Jordan Weal stopped
- 5. TOR John Tavares stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:11MTLTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P1 17:57TORNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:42MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:11MTLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:07MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:13TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P3 13:02TORKasperi Kapanen: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- OT 0:57TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:59
xG 0.94–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 2–1
- Thompson – Byron – Weal3:51
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Byron – Drouin – Domi4:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi5:27
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete14:12
xG 1.58–0.19 (89%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Kulak – Fleury10:06
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Petry – Mete2:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev9:34
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews11:01
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov5:52
xG 0.13–0.71 (15%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner11:35
xG 0.36–1.06 (25%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Ceci2:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Marincin – Sandin6:31
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie17:19
xG 0.50–0.77 (39%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).