Sat, Oct 5, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 28 | 113 | 430 |
| OTT | 110 | 010 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 12:14OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:53NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 12:07NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 2:51NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:37OTTNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:46NYRPavel Buchnevich: Interference2 min
- P1 19:43OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:44NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:08NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:56OTTColin White: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52NYRChris Kreider: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin10:51
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Strome – Lemieux – Kakko3:30
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Fast – Namestnikov – Howden3:41
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Fast – Lemieux – Howden4:42
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Fox12:04
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Staal – DeAngelo12:19
xG 0.24–0.64 (28%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Trouba – Hajek8:38
xG 0.23–0.68 (26%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – White – Tkachuk4:36
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk4:55
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Batherson2:55
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Brown – Duclair2:35
xG 0.01–0.04 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev20:48
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 22–24goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom10:26
xG 0.61–0.31 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – DeMelo10:12
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).