Sat, Oct 5, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 18 | 217 | 335 |
| FLA | 08 | 314 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:39FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:05FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 12:32FLANoel AcciariAssists: Colton Sceviour, Dryden Hunt · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 16:23TBLGemel SmithAssists: Luke Witkowski, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 0:17FLAMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brett Connolly · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 6:40TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 15:41TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Yanni Gourde, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:18TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:33TBLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:39TBLGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:39FLAMike Hoffman: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Verhaeghe – Joseph5:48
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Kucherov8:43
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli8:58
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman11:45
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Coburn – Sergachev5:59
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak7:52
xG 0.12–0.41 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov8:46
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari6:11
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck8:05
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hawryluk – Vatrano – Borgstrom5:14
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Weegar12:15
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad14:00
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown8:00
xG 0.04–0.77 (4%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).