Sat, Oct 5, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 18 | 012 | 231 |
| COL | 215 | 19 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:57COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Matt Calvert, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 10:17MINRyan SuterUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 8:31MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 18:54COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:20COLRyan GravesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:07MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02COLTyson Jost: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 19:09COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P2 2:10MINLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:17MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:54COLAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
- P3 4:22MINLuke Kunin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:10MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Parise – Greenway – Kunin8:49
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Eriksson Ek8:17
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Fiala6:55
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Donato7:39
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Soucy11:06
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba14:38
xG 0.91–1.05 (46%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin11:03
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare4:34
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:09
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Nieto – Burakovsky – Compher5:46
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Jost5:22
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Timmins8:47
xG 0.85–0.31 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Johnson – Girard10:17
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Girard – Makar2:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).