Sat, Oct 5, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 5, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 38 | 011 | 213 | 532 |
| EDM | 210 | 114 | 37 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:13LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:05LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 10:23EDMJames NealPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P1 14:49LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 4:51EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 3:26LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Kyle Clifford, Trevor Lewis · Slap, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 5:24EDMJoakim NygardAssists: Gaetan Haas · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 8:19LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 10:10EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Tomas Jurco · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–5
- P3 13:28EDMJames NealPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Backhand, 0.22 xG5–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:04LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:28LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 5:31EDMMatt Benning: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:57LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:07EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P3 5:47EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
- P3 7:14EDMJoel Persson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37LAKSean Walker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:14EDMJames Neal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Amadio6:29
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:04
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Kempe9:53
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Toffoli – Wagner – Lizotte8:45
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Roy9:43
xG 0.86–0.38 (70%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Martinez – Doughty4:36
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hutton – Walker14:14
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid12:01
xG 0.95–0.63 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 2–2
- Khaira – Cave – Russell5:09
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Jurco – Granlund – Haas8:05
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Nugent-Hopkins – Nygard10:32
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Russell – Benning11:45
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear14:46
xG 0.66–0.73 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
- Klefbom – Persson12:48
xG 0.48–0.82 (37%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).