Tue, Oct 8, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Edmonton Oilers 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 211 | 13 | 527 |
| NYI | 16 | 011 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14NYIAnthony BeauvillierSHAssists: Leo Komarov · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 17:53EDMJames NealUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:29EDMJames NealPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 6:31EDMJames NealPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 8:46EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 6:51EDMJames NealAssists: Tomas Jurco, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 13:32NYIMatt MartinAssists: Noah Dobson, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:10EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:10NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:42NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:07NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:53NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:39EDMEthan Bear: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid11:24
xG 0.69–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Jurco – Nugent-Hopkins10:07
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Granlund – Nygard – Haas7:50
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell10:08
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear14:34
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Russell – Benning12:01
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Persson13:52
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Eberle – Lee6:35
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:52
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Komarov – Bailey – Nelson4:22
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Brassard – Beauvillier3:15
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Dobson13:15
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Toews – Dobson3:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews10:36
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).