Tue, Oct 8, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 16 | 212 | 13 | 426 |
| WSH | 114 | 113 | 15 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:59DALRoope HintzAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:55WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 7:53DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 12:03DALNick CaamanoAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:29WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 0:43DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:16WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:48DALEsa Lindell: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:14DALJustin Dowling: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:27DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:30WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:21WSHGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P3 14:03DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P3 14:27DALTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P3 16:07WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin11:02
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Caamano – Gardner2:23
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz6:55
xG 0.20–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Dowling – Caamano – Gardner4:11
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Oleksiak7:43
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen2:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Vrana8:16
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Leipsic – Stephenson – Hathaway5:44
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson12:32
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Panik – Kuznetsov7:13
xG 0.08–0.35 (18%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Siegenthaler12:18
xG 0.89–0.39 (69%)attempts 22–6goals 2–1
- Orlov – Jensen14:25
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Gudas – Lewington9:57
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).