Sat, Oct 12, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 111 | 111 | 11 | 333 |
| CHI | 213 | 06 | 010 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02CHIBrandon SaadSHAssists: Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:37CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:05WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:44WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:47WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:18CHIZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:00WPGAdam Lowry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:27CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30CHIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:48CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Ehlers – Connor11:00
xG 1.06–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Letestu – Bourque – Lowry6:53
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Perreault – Roslovic – Appleton8:28
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine14:06
xG 0.30–0.55 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlstrom – Pionk13:20
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Bitetto12:24
xG 0.33–0.60 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey18:36
xG 0.59–0.97 (38%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Shaw – Strome12:43
xG 0.84–0.18 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Caggiula10:35
xG 0.92–0.74 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Carpenter – Perlini5:12
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Saad – Kubalik – Kampf9:27
xG 0.09–0.41 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy18:09
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Maatta12:10
xG 0.70–0.90 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- de Haan – Gustafsson11:57
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).