Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 416 | 210 | 735 |
| MIN | 011 | 211 | 211 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 3:26PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Matt Murray · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 3:54MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:11PITAdam JohnsonAssists: Sam Lafferty, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 12:58PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 13:39PITJoseph BlandisiGWGAssists: Adam Johnson, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
- P2 16:46MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Marcus Foligno, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 10:48PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.21 xG6–2
- P3 15:23MINBrad HuntAssists: Kevin Fiala, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG6–3
- P3 15:44MINLuke KuninAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–4
- P3 18:49PITSam LaffertyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG7–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:55MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:55PITSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:26MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:40PITJack Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:56PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:56MINDevan Dubnyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:56PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:55MINJason Zucker: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 10:16MINRyan Hartman: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlandisi – Lafferty – Johnson5:57
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:49
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun9:55
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon13:29
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 20–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Marino13:33
xG 0.12–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Schultz – Pettersson16:56
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
- Letang – Dumoulin16:29
xG 0.67–1.11 (38%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zuccarello – Zucker13:02
xG 0.91–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman7:29
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Parise – Eriksson Ek – Kunin6:14
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Fiala5:01
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba19:47
xG 1.07–0.48 (69%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Spurgeon – Brodin16:41
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Hunt – Soucy11:53
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).