Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 010 | 213 | 01 | 236 |
| COL | 010 | 07 | 210 | 15 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:57COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P3 8:46COLTyson JostAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P3 9:27ARIMichael GrabnerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 16:03ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 3:29COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:40COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:12ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:48COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 12:38ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:52COLRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:13ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:37ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Keller2:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza5:58
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Crouse – Garland3:54
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Hayton3:19
xG 0.03–0.26 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Chychrun3:16
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:20
xG 0.33–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Oesterle2:31
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:43
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Wilson – Kadri – Donskoi2:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare3:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky2:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard7:55
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Makar6:22
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 1–2
- Barberio – Graves4:57
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).