Tue, Oct 15, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 010 | 111 | 229 |
| TOR | 09 | 419 | 06 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30MINLuke KuninAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:58TORJohn TavaresAssists: Cody Ceci, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:17TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:29TORAndreas JohnssonPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 13:05TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 18:58MINGerry MayhewAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:35MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:27TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 6:29MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:55TORAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:26TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Staal – Hartman – Greenway4:00
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rask – Greenway – Mayhew4:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:12
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zucker11:07
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Soucy12:07
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:43
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon15:48
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:19
xG 1.21–0.34 (78%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Moore7:06
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev2:30
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner4:03
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci16:44
xG 1.04–0.53 (66%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Marincin – Holl11:08
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie18:07
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).