Tue, Oct 15, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 29 | 06 | 322 |
| MTL | 19 | 011 | 014 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Max Domi · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:53TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:04TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:01TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:22TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:31MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:27TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:35TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:10TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:26
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Gourde10:40
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point12:40
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak2:18
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh10:51
xG 0.67–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev9:17
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Weal – Kotkaniemi2:37
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Suzuki2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Suzuki5:30
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Domi2:00
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Kulak13:57
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Folin13:31
xG 0.94–1.22 (43%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete13:56
xG 0.28–0.58 (32%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).