Tue, Oct 15, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 315 | 07 | 435 |
| WPG | 110 | 014 | 116 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Patrik Laine, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.56 xG0–1
- P1 19:52ARIConor GarlandAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nick Schmaltz · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:11ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 7:21ARINick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:47ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 4:58WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:33ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:11ARIAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:40WPGDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:45ARIConor Garland: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:16ARINick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Garland7:12
xG 0.41–0.21 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller9:30
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza8:43
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse9:10
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Capobianco7:22
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:16
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Demers – Chychrun2:37
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Roslovic6:17
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine9:26
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bourque – Appleton – Gustafsson5:42
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Connor11:11
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlstrom – Pionk12:50
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Pionk2:51
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).