Tue, Oct 15, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 312 | 117 | 539 |
| VGK | 218 | 09 | 08 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Ryan Ellis, Rocco Grimaldi · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:55VGKMark StonePPAssists: Cody Glass, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:23VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 0:44NSHColton SissonsAssists: Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 5:08NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 6:52NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 4:00NSHNick BoninoPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:34VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:01NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13NSHRoman Josi: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:13VGKMark Stone: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:28VGKMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P2 12:57NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P2 17:28NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42VGKValentin Zykov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:49VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:24VGKValentin Zykov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:12NSHDan Hamhuis: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:12VGKMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:22NSHNick Bonino: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Sissons8:01
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons2:40
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Turris – Watson – Grimaldi7:46
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson10:18
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ellis13:39
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro14:32
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber6:11
xG 0.50–0.92 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Zykov – Glass8:26
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:01
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone7:54
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:29
xG 0.08–0.54 (13%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore10:55
xG 1.12–0.51 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 0–2
- Engelland – Hague12:20
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Holden – Merrill13:57
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).