Fri, Oct 18, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 111 | 18 | 224 |
| PIT | 010 | 116 | 37 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:10DALRoope HintzAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 17:36PITJared McCannAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:34PITKris LetangAssists: Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:20PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Dominik Kahun · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 12:01DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 19:38PITKris LetangENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:26DALDenis Gurianov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:44PITBrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:58DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Pavelski – Faksa – Janmark7:59
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Dowling – Gurianov4:52
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Dickinson5:46
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Faksa2:48
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:01
xG 1.06–0.53 (66%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:05
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak10:01
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlandisi – Lafferty – Johnson6:37
xG 0.30–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun9:32
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:25
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon15:42
xG 0.91–0.97 (48%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:21
xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Marino14:49
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
- Schultz – Pettersson14:47
xG 0.51–0.88 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).