Fri, Oct 18, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 17 | 09 | 228 |
| WSH | 210 | 116 | 29 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24WSHT.J. OshiePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 12:25NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:16WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 3:45WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:56NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 10:18WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:32WSHGarnet HathawayENAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:09NYRArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:41NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:41WSHRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min
- P1 11:50WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:23NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16NYRBrady Skjei: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:16WSHRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 9:20NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:20WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:42WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:29NYRLibor Hajek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Strome – Lemieux – Kakko3:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Lemieux5:04
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin12:54
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Howden – Kakko4:56
xG 0.05–1.07 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Hajek5:32
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Fox – Hajek2:43
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Fox7:06
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:19
xG 1.95–0.18 (92%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Stephenson5:26
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Vrana8:05
xG 0.94–0.76 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:12
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:22
xG 1.26–0.74 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Gudas – Kempny8:48
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny3:07
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).