Fri, Oct 18, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 015 | 111 | 113 | 00 | 239 |
| CHI | 110 | 08 | 113 | 12 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:35CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:33CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Cam Atkinson, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:55CBJMarkus NutivaaraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 8:08CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:46CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:13CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:00CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54CBJAlexander Wennberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:58CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P2 19:35CHIRobin Lehner: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:58CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:00CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P3 16:13CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Atkinson won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:54
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Jenner – Texier – Bemstrom7:26
xG 0.28–0.08 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Milano – Lilja4:55
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Atkinson – Dubois10:13
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski13:25
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov14:27
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara10:01
xG 0.72–0.83 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Shaw – Strome11:24
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Saad – Kubalik – Kampf9:37
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Toews – DeBrincat – Caggiula10:01
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Nylander6:05
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy14:59
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- de Haan – Murphy2:11
xG 0.11–0.12 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Maatta9:24
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).