Mon, Oct 21, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 015 | 110 | 14 | 438 |
| TOR | 213 | 112 | 06 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31CBJRiley NashSHAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:52CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Nick Foligno, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 11:25TORKasperi KapanenSHAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 19:21TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Jake Muzzin · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:43TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 10:09CBJAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
- OT 1:57CBJGustav NyquistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:15CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P1 10:52TORAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:08CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:24TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:03TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:52TORFrederik Gauthier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 1:57TORMitch Marner: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Dubois8:54
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Milano2:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg6:26
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Milano – Bemstrom3:05
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov12:59
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara14:24
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski14:04
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews9:58
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Moore7:48
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov6:28
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Mikheyev2:52
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Holl3:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie13:48
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Marincin – Holl5:48
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).