Tue, Oct 22, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 05 | 113 | 00 | 328 |
| BUF | 014 | 210 | 14 | 11 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46SJSDylan GambrellAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marcus Sorensen · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:23SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Patrick Marleau, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 7:21BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:29BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 0:45BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 11:27SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Kevin Labanc, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:13BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:46SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:10SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:02BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:22BUFJack Eichel: Interference2 min
- P3 9:07SJSBarclay Goodrow: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSorensen – Karlsson – Gambrell4:24
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Kane – Hertl – Labanc2:48
xG 0.25–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Meier12:03
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Hertl – Gregor8:58
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon15:58
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Burns – Vlasic16:24
xG 0.90–0.74 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Heed – Ferraro8:20
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt6:57
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:34
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:13
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:35
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju12:22
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:54
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
- Miller – Dahlin12:01
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).