Tue, Oct 22, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Arizona Coyotes 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 121 | 18 | 05 | 11 | 335 |
| NYR | 04 | 212 | 03 | 00 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06ARILawson CrouseAssists: Christian Fischer, Carl Soderberg · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 5:04NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 13:46ARIAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 18:00NYRTony DeAngeloPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Kaapo Kakko · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:04ARIChristian DvorakGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:39NYRAdam Fox: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:11NYRPavel Buchnevich: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:52NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:15ARIChristian Fischer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:06ARIConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 5:40NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:04NYRBrendan Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Fischer – Crouse7:55
xG 0.99–0.15 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland11:13
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller10:29
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza10:40
xG 0.22–0.83 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun15:30
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson19:38
xG 0.72–0.86 (46%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin10:34
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Zibanejad – Panarin11:47
xG 0.54–0.22 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin5:34
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Buchnevich – Lemieux7:48
xG 1.02–0.92 (53%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Kreider – Howden – Kakko8:00
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo10:48
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Fox – Hajek2:10
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fox8:14
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).