Tue, Oct 22, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 0, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 09 | 08 | 025 |
| MIN | 312 | 010 | 08 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:33MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:48MINEric StaalAssists: Carson Soucy, Jordan Greenway · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 16:46MINBrad HuntPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:40EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:34EDMBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:59MINRyan Donato: Interference2 min
- P3 0:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:36MINLuke Kunin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:05EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – McDavid – Russell6:47
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jurco – Granlund – Russell4:11
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins4:21
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira2:46
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse5:40
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Bear8:09
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom9:25
xG 0.10–0.29 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Zucker11:55
xG 0.77–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker3:38
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Dumont – Donato – Mayhew7:14
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Greenway3:31
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:43
xG 1.73–0.52 (77%)attempts 28–15goals 1–0
- Hunt – Soucy12:33
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:47
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).