Tue, Oct 22, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 09 | 115 | 02 | 2 | 234 |
| CHI | 112 | 012 | 08 | 00 | 1 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:15CHIKirby DachAssists: Olli Maatta, Dylan Strome · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 18:27VGKNick HoldenAssists: Mark Stone, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. VGK Brandon Pirri stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 5. CHI Alex DeBrincat stopped
- 6. VGK Shea Theodore scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:30VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:44CHIDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P1 11:41VGKJake Bischoff: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:48VGKBrayden McNabb: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:37CHIErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:29VGKDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 3:22CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carpenter won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone8:21
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Glass5:12
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Pirri – Nosek3:24
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:44
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:34
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bischoff11:37
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Merrill – Theodore3:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kubalik – Kampf9:51
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – Dach5:50
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Nylander – Caggiula5:54
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Shaw – DeBrincat8:35
xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook3:11
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy9:01
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Gustafsson6:04
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).