Wed, Oct 23, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 212 | 013 | 236 |
| OTT | 112 | 312 | 114 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16OTTChris TierneyAssists: Bobby Ryan, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:45DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Jacob de la Rose · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:25DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 3:15OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Nick Paul, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 5:27OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 17:09OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Thomas Chabot, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:12OTTAnthony DuclairENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:53DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:48OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:10OTTNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P2 4:43OTTRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:44DETTaro Hirose: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:42OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:52OTTAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00de la Rose won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Hirose2:17
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – de la Rose5:12
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Filppula – Glendening – Athanasiou3:30
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Svechnikov – Hirose4:33
xG 0.15–0.43 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek2:56
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Green – Cholowski3:42
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Bowey13:42
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Brown – Tkachuk7:51
xG 1.04–0.40 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Paul12:04
xG 0.85–0.22 (79%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Ennis – Sabourin – Beaudin4:20
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Ryan – Namestnikov – Tierney9:33
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo10:34
xG 0.81–0.09 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom11:26
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev16:32
xG 0.96–1.03 (48%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).