Thu, Oct 24, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Arizona Coyotes 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 07 | 19 | 223 |
| NYI | 17 | 18 | 27 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25NYIDerick BrassardAssists: Ryan Pulock, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:20ARIMichael GrabnerAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 14:03NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Nick Leddy, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 8:00NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:55ARIConor GarlandAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:48NYIScott MayfieldENAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:51NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06ARIPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stepan – Keller12:49
xG 1.06–0.53 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse10:34
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza6:33
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland9:13
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson17:47
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:00
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin13:04
xG 0.20–0.78 (21%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:12
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier2:56
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Dal Colle – Bardreau – Wahlstrom5:00
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal11:23
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Toews15:03
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock15:47
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:23
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).